2018 Senate · MI
Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 1,817 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 52.8% · Republican 43.8%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.26% · Republican 45.76%
D+6.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52.8 − 43.8 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 52.262 − 45.756 = 6.506
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (6.506) = 2.494
- Absolute miss = |2.494| = 2.494
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56814, race ID 106 (538 database).