Skip to content

2018 Governor · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 2,171 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 40.1% · Republican 52.4%

R+12.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.83% · Republican 50.22%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.1 − 52.4 = -12.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.833 − 50.222 = -1.389
  3. Signed miss = -12.30 − (-1.389) = -10.911
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.911| = 10.911

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56749, race ID 139 (538 database).