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2022 Governor · MI

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,079 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 47.9%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 47.9 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (10.531) = -10.031
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.031| = 10.031

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81209, race ID 8969 (538 database).