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2017 House · GA-6

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2017-06-12 (8 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 50.22% · Republican 47.46%

D+2.8

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 51.78%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.22 − 47.46 = 2.76
  2. Actual margin = 48.217 − 51.783 = -3.566
  3. Signed miss = 2.76 − (-3.566) = 6.326
  4. Absolute miss = |6.326| = 6.326

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50569, race ID 1762 (538 database).