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2022 Governor · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,076 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 52.2%

R+6.9

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 52.2 = -6.90
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -6.90 − (-7.535) = 0.635
  4. Absolute miss = |0.635| = 0.635

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81232, race ID 8960 (538 database).