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2022 Senate · WI

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,095 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 50.1%

R+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 49.41% · Republican 50.41%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 50.1 = -2.70
  2. Actual margin = 49.405 − 50.413 = -1.008
  3. Signed miss = -2.70 − (-1.008) = -1.693
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.693| = 1.693

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81557, race ID 8951 (538 database).