Skip to content

2022 Senate · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,076 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.5% · Republican 48.9%

R+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.5 − 48.9 = -2.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -2.40 − (0.957) = -3.357
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.357| = 3.357

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81232, race ID 8925 (538 database).