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2018 Senate · FL

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 2,543 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 47.2%

D+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 47.2 = 2.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = 2.20 − (-0.123) = 2.323
  4. Absolute miss = |2.323| = 2.323

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56638, race ID 100 (538 database).