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2024 President · Ohio

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 1,095 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.2% · Republican 52.1%

R+6.9

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 55.14%

R+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.2 − 52.1 = -6.90
  2. Actual margin = 43.928 − 55.136 = -11.208
  3. Signed miss = -6.90 − (-11.208) = 4.307
  4. Absolute miss = |4.307| = 4.307

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89389, race ID 8863 (538 database).

population: lv