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2016 President · CO

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 1,150 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.77% · Republican 44.33%

D+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.16% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.77 − 44.33 = 0.44
  2. Actual margin = 48.157 − 43.251 = 4.906
  3. Signed miss = 0.44 − (4.906) = -4.466
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.466| = 4.466

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48344, race ID 607 (538 database).