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2022 Governor · WI

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,095 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49.6%

R+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.75%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49.6 = -1.60
  2. Actual margin = 51.149 − 47.752 = 3.397
  3. Signed miss = -1.60 − (3.397) = -4.997
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.997| = 4.997

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81557, race ID 8986 (538 database).