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2024 President · Iowa

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 52.4%

R+6.8

The certified result

Democrat 42.52% · Republican 55.73%

R+13.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 52.4 = -6.80
  2. Actual margin = 42.517 − 55.727 = -13.210
  3. Signed miss = -6.80 − (-13.210) = 6.410
  4. Absolute miss = |6.410| = 6.410

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89369, race ID 8788 (538 database).

population: lv