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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 47.8% · Republican 46.7%

D+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.8 − 46.7 = 1.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 1.10 − (-0.217) = 1.317
  4. Absolute miss = |1.317| = 1.317

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89305, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv