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2024 President · Michigan

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 47.2%

D+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 47.2 = 0.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 0.10 − (-1.414) = 1.514
  4. Absolute miss = |1.514| = 1.514

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89303, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: lv