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2024 President · Arizona

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 46.2% · Republican 49.1%

R+2.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.2 − 49.1 = -2.90
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -2.90 − (-5.527) = 2.627
  4. Absolute miss = |2.627| = 2.627

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89302, race ID 8759 (538 database).

population: lv