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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 541 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.849) = 1.151
  4. Absolute miss = |1.151| = 1.151

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89284, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv