Skip to content

2024 President · Wisconsin

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 540 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 48.2%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 48.2 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (-0.859) = 0.259
  4. Absolute miss = |0.259| = 0.259

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89268, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: lv