2024 Senate · Texas
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 2,120 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44.4% · Republican 47.4%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.56% · Republican 53.05%
R+8.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44.4 − 47.4 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 44.556 − 53.054 = -8.498
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-8.498) = 5.497
- Absolute miss = |5.497| = 5.497
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89267, race ID 9530 (538 database).
population: lv