2024 President · Texas
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 2,120 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 51.7%
R+6.7
The certified result
Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%
R+13.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 51.7 = -6.70
- Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
- Signed miss = -6.70 − (-13.683) = 6.983
- Absolute miss = |6.983| = 6.983
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89267, race ID 8889 (538 database).
population: lv