2024 Senate · Pennsylvania
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 1,538 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46.1% · Republican 43.2%
D+2.9
The certified result
Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%
R+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46.1 − 43.2 = 2.90
- Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
- Signed miss = 2.90 − (-0.217) = 3.117
- Absolute miss = |3.117| = 3.117
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89266, race ID 9527 (538 database).
population: lv