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2024 President · North Carolina

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 1,056 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 49.2%

R+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 49.2 = -1.80
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -1.80 − (-3.212) = 1.412
  4. Absolute miss = |1.412| = 1.412

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89264, race ID 8839 (538 database).

population: lv