Skip to content

2024 President · Maryland

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 472 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 63.7% · Republican 31.3%

D+32.4

The certified result

Democrat 62.62% · Republican 34.08%

D+28.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63.7 − 31.3 = 32.40
  2. Actual margin = 62.619 − 34.083 = 28.536
  3. Signed miss = 32.40 − (28.536) = 3.864
  4. Absolute miss = |3.864| = 3.864

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89262, race ID 8814 (538 database).

population: lv