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2024 President · Georgia

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 1,009 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49.6%

R+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49.6 = -1.60
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -1.60 − (-2.192) = 0.592
  4. Absolute miss = |0.592| = 0.592

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89261, race ID 8781 (538 database).

population: lv