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2024 President · Florida

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 2,022 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.1% · Republican 50.9%

R+4.8

The certified result

Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%

R+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.1 − 50.9 = -4.80
  2. Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
  3. Signed miss = -4.80 − (-13.100) = 8.300
  4. Absolute miss = |8.300| = 8.300

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89260, race ID 8778 (538 database).

population: lv