2024 Senate · Arizona
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 666 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 42%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%
D+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 42 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (2.406) = 5.594
- Absolute miss = |5.594| = 5.594
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89259, race ID 9505 (538 database).
population: lv