Skip to content

2024 Senate · Nevada

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 721 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 42%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (1.643) = 5.357
  4. Absolute miss = |5.357| = 5.357

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89214, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv