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2024 Senate · Arizona

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 1,079 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.406) = 2.594
  4. Absolute miss = |2.594| = 2.594

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89213, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv