2024 President · Arizona
OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 50%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%
R+5.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 50 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-5.527) = 2.527
- Absolute miss = |2.527| = 2.527
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89209, race ID 8759 (538 database).
population: lv