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2024 President · national

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.472) = -0.528
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.528| = 0.528

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89181, race ID 8914 (538 database).

population: lv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes