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2024 President · Pennsylvania

Beacon/Shaw · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,310 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.710) = 3.710
  4. Absolute miss = |3.710| = 3.710

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89109, race ID 8872 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv