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2024 Senate · Arizona

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 44.5% · Republican 45.2%

R+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.5 − 45.2 = -0.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = -0.70 − (2.406) = -3.106
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.106| = 3.106

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89040, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv