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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.849) = -1.849
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.849| = 1.849

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89025, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv