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2024 Senate · Michigan

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 48.3% · Republican 47.7%

D+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.3 − 47.7 = 0.60
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 0.60 − (0.341) = 0.259
  4. Absolute miss = |0.259| = 0.259

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88976, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv