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2024 Senate · Ohio

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.47% · Republican 50.09%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.470 − 50.089 = -3.619
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-3.619) = 1.619
  4. Absolute miss = |1.619| = 1.619

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88941, race ID 9526 (538 database).

population: lv