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2024 House · Ohio

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2024-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 707 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.10% · Republican 48.90%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.105 − 48.895 = 2.210
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (2.210) = -3.211
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.211| = 3.211

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88935, race ID 9852 (538 database).

population: lv