2024 President · Wisconsin
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 635 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 47%
even
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%
R+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-0.859) = 0.859
- Absolute miss = |0.859| = 0.859
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88905, race ID 8905 (538 database).
This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv