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2024 President · Arizona

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 915 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.527) = 5.527
  4. Absolute miss = |5.527| = 5.527

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88899, race ID 8759 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv