2024 House · Montana
Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 500 respondents · method not reported · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 46%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.62% · Republican 52.30%
R+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 44.616 − 52.295 = -7.679
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-7.679) = 6.679
- Absolute miss = |6.679| = 6.679
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88848, race ID 9771 (538 database).
population: lv