Skip to content

2024 Senate · Arizona

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45.8%

D+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45.8 = 4.20
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 4.20 − (2.406) = 1.794
  4. Absolute miss = |1.794| = 1.794

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88843, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv