2024 House · New Mexico
Research & Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 414 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 45%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.08% · Republican 47.92%
D+4.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 52.079 − 47.921 = 4.158
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.158) = -0.158
- Absolute miss = |-0.158| = 0.158
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88821, race ID 9796 (538 database).
population: lv