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2024 President · New Mexico

Research & Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 1,024 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 41%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.85% · Republican 45.85%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.852 − 45.851 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (6.001) = 2.999
  4. Absolute miss = |2.999| = 2.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88821, race ID 8854 (538 database).

population: lv