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2024 President · Wisconsin

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 527 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-0.859) = -0.141
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.141| = 0.141

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88755, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: lv