2024 Senate · Ohio
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,243 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 47%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.47% · Republican 50.09%
R+3.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 46.470 − 50.089 = -3.619
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.619) = 2.619
- Absolute miss = |2.619| = 2.619
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88752, race ID 9526 (538 database).
population: lv