2024 President · North Carolina
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,072 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 49%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%
R+3.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.212) = 2.212
- Absolute miss = |2.212| = 2.212
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88751, race ID 8839 (538 database).
population: lv