2024 Senate · Arizona
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 653 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 40%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%
D+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (2.406) = 9.594
- Absolute miss = |9.594| = 9.594
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88746, race ID 9505 (538 database).
population: lv