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2024 President · Georgia

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.192) = 0.192
  4. Absolute miss = |0.192| = 0.192

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88707, race ID 8781 (538 database).

population: rv