Skip to content

2022 Senate · GA

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-12-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,229 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 49%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 48.60%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 49 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.403 − 48.597 = 2.806
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (2.806) = -0.806
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.806| = 0.806

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81760, race ID 9552 (538 database).