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2022 Governor · CO

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 856 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 42%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.53% · Republican 39.18%

D+19.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.534 − 39.184 = 19.350
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (19.350) = -7.350
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.350| = 7.350

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81620, race ID 8957 (538 database).