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2022 Governor · GA

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,474 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 54%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.88% · Republican 53.41%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 54 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.876 − 53.411 = -7.535
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-7.535) = -1.465
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.465| = 1.465

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81619, race ID 8960 (538 database).