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2022 Senate · GA

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,474 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.957) = -1.957
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.957| = 1.957

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81619, race ID 8925 (538 database).